Job Market Paper
Modelling the learning impacts of educational disruptions in the short and long run. (available here)
In this paper, I propose a new framework for analysing the short and long-run effects of temporary educational disruptions on the learning progression of children. The framework integrates into a coherent model recent advances in the literature on learning acquisition (Kaffenberger, 2021; Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020b, 2021) and the literature on estimating the immediate costs of instructional disruptions (Neidhöfer et al., 2021). The integrated framework includes explicit modelling of continuous parental investments, filling a gap in the literature related to the Potential Pedagogical Function and other explicit models of learning progression and acquisition. In the same way, the model considers the role of economic resources as part of the resources employed by parents to mitigate the effects of a temporary shock in instruction., expanding the notion of attenuation capacity developed by Neidhöfer et al. (2021). Finally, I take this framework to the data to estimate the potential effects of the instructional disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. The estimates suggest that, for the Mexican cohort affected by the instructional disruption, the potential persistent loss in learning with respect to the counterfactual lies on average between 20% and 90% of the learning acquired during a usual school year, depending on the effectiveness of the remote learning policies implemented during 2020 and 2021. These results already consider the mitigating role of parental investments. Furthermore, my results suggest substantial variation between inhabitants from different regions of the country and inside inhabitants of the same region, being the South of the country the region where the losses are the largest.
Economic Inequality meets Social Stratification: An Analytical Framework with an Application to Mexico (with Paloma Villagómez-Ornelas) (Working Paper version available here)
Does Globalisation Reward Education? Evidence for Mexico (with Ingrid Bleynat)
Work in progress.
Interregional comparisons of intergenerational social mobility: the importance of positional mobility. (Draft available upon request)
In this paper, I analyze how the use of nationally defined ranks for the estimation of differences in intergenerational mobility across the regions of a country provides a measure of mobility that mixes factors of structural mobility and positional mobility. Using the Mexican case as an example, I show that a positional mobility focus provides a different ordering or regions by their intergenerational persistence than the one obtained by the nationally defined ranks approach. Differences in the mobility rates calculated using nationally defined ranks are a mix of differences in the marginal distributions of the regions and differences in the positional persistence inside each region. Through a decomposition analysis, I show that the between-regions or structural factor constitutes 23% of the intergenerational persistence observed at the national level, while the rest corresponds to the sum of the internal positional persistence of each region.
A Land of Unequal Chances: Social Mobility Across Mexican Regions. (with Miles Corak) (Working Paper version available here )
Using a new data set, I estimate the patterns of social mobility in Mexico and its regions, contributing to the growing literature on regional social mobility patterns. I identify that although Mexico is a country with high levels of intergenerational rank persistence, thus low levels of social mobility, there is substantial variability across its regions. While 35 out of 100 individuals born in the bottom quintile of the household asset distribution and in the South of the country experience upward mobility, twice as large a proportion of those born in the bottom quintile but in Mexico City experience the same type of mobility. Controlling for multiple characteristics at the household and neighborhood levels, I find a penalization of 12 percentiles in terms of upward mobility against individuals born in the South, with respect the rest of the country, and a boost of 10 percentiles for those with origin in Mexico City.
Shades of social mobility: Colorism, ethnic origin and intergenerational social mobility.